Former baseball player and manager Yogi Berra is famous for saying, “It’s hard to make predictions about the future!”
So, with a yogi’s kind word in mind, I give you some predictions for 2022.
Quebec Politics
There will be a general election in 2022 (okay, that’s easy!).
Before the General, there will be a by-election at Marie-Victorian where an excellent performance by my former colleague Pierre Nantel will give hope (and comfort) to the PSPP.
For the main show, Dominique Anglade will drive well to the left of Legault and will eat the QS vote. His base in the capital, Montreal, will remain loyal to him and Legault will have a tough time with his poor performance in managing the pandemic. If he wins, he will be far from the crushing results predicted by the polls.
Federal policy
Justin Trudeau will be “walking in the snow” towards the end of 2022.
Recognizing his legacy as a “feminist”, he would do everything to elect Chrystia Freeland as leader of the legislature and thus prime minister.
Former Bank of Canada (and Bank of England) Governor Mark Carney can be considered the savior of the Canadian economy, which was damaged by the tandem of Trudeau and Freeland. He risks playing the spoiler game with a liberal membership more progressive than her.
environment
Stephen Gilbolt will go a long way in reversing decades of inaction on climate change. His main challenge will be to convince Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland that reducing greenhouse gases is not an option, it is an obligation. For his part, Freeland will only think of one thing: his election as leader of the local political committee. It will try to save goats and cabbage in the oil-producing regions. Here again, Carney’s merit will be, given his exceptional international work on this existential cause of planet Earth.
LEGO has never ceased to admire the environmental profile, which it never talked about during the 2018 campaign. Even if the greenhouse gas production record remains a real problem for future generations, it offers an extraordinary vision of the future in the green hydrogen profile. He said a categorically “no” to the Energy East pipeline and the Energy Sagweni LNG project. As snow on a sundae, hydrocarbons are banned in La Belle County! Expect an important announcement in electric transportation before the elections.
Economie
The astronomical indebtedness of our governments will continue to fuel inflation. Families will be affected in two ways: the cost of daily living, such as grocery shopping, will rise sharply and interest rates will begin to rise along with inflation. This will translate to higher fees for credit cards and mortgages. What costs families dearly can end up costly at the polls.
Another safe expectation!
Without fear, I expect that I will have shattered at least one of my reckless expectations!
Happy New Year 2022.
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