Elderly people have been vaccinated as a priority, and have survived much more from the epidemic of the “wave” of Covid-19 that has struck France since the beginning of 2021. This is what emerged from Detailed infection rate analysisCalculated from the number of positive cases per 100,000 residents during the past week.
The incidence rate among those over the age of seventies has decreased sharply
At the beginning of January, Vaccination It started on Ehpad but wasn’t yet open to all people 75 years of age or older – that’s only been the case since January 18th. The incidence rate among those aged 70 or over (these data are not available in open data in the finer age classes) was higher than the rate for the population as a whole.
In two and a half months, it decreased continuously and halved, from 220 to 130. It now represents half the infection rate for all ages combined, which has doubled at the same time! In contrast to November, when the incidence rate of elderly people was 40% higher than the general population, it was remarkable. And this observation is visible in all urban areas of France, according to the data we examined.
The result: the peak of this “third wave” of the epidemic, which arrived at the beginning of April, is barely visible among those aged 70 and over. In nursing homes, where nearly 600,000 residents live, the weekly number of positive cases stabilized “around 9300 until the beginning of February” and then “decreased from week 06. [mi-février] », Also note Public Health France. Since the end of March, this assessment has stabilized again, with “only” about 2,000 cases recorded each week.
In addition to occurring, the hospitalization curves say the same: the number of hospitalized patients aged at least 80 years increased from about 14,000 to 10,000 in two and a half months, while it increased in the lower age groups. Mechanically, the proportion of “youth” increased among all Covid patients who were treated in hospital or in critical care.
Reasons for optimism
The main reason for the curves intersection is clear, and foreign countries such as Israel have noted this as well: nearly three-quarters of those 70 and over received at least one dose and nearly half received a full vaccination (two doses in the classic and One dose with a Janssen product Or in the case of a previous infection, three doses if the person is severely immunocompromised, etc.). Of all ages combined, only a quarter of the population received their first injection.
However, vaccination is not necessarily the only reason for this. Our seniors, even those not yet vaccinated, may be particularly vigilant in respecting barrier gestures, realizing that they will quickly have the potential to inject the product. On the other hand, the decrease in infection rate did not appear to be explained by a decrease in screening. The number of tests done has decreased very slightly among those ages 90 and over since January, but has remained stable among those between the ages of 70 and 89.
All this encourages optimism for the future, Because more and more categories are eligible. People aged 60 to 69 or even 50 to 59 years old could be the next categories in which improvement in the indicators can be seen. The vaccination was opened on April 12th for every 55 years or more, but all those with common diseases or practicing the so-called “priority” profession were able to vaccinate them with a product in advance. Indeed, the incidence of 60-69 is only 72% of all ages combined, while it was at the same level as of March.
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