Is Trump still the leader of the Republicans?

Eighteen months after leaving the White House, does Donald Trump still have the power to call and break elections in the United States? The former president’s political influence will be tested in a series of Republican primaries throughout May.

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Dozens of US states, starting with Ohio on Tuesday, are holding primaries through May to determine their Republican candidate in the “mid-term elections,” the midterm legislative elections, scheduled for November.

These polls will examine the spirit of the Republican Party, where a particularly bitter battle is raging between various hard-right candidates.

Several of them released the worst intimidation to gain the attention and official support of Donald Trump.

A sign of the stranglehold he still has over the Republican Party, the former president’s name runs through election commercials from Pennsylvania to Georgia, through Alabama and North Carolina.

And beware of those who do not pledge allegiance to Donald Trump.

In Ohio, as we vote on Tuesday, one of the Republican contenders for senator, J.D. Vance — author of the best-selling book about America in the Grip of Declining Industrialization that inspired the production of Netflix (“American Poem”) — got it right.

The 37-year-old was a former critic of the Republican billionaire, and now boasts fiercely about his supposed closeness to Donald Trump, who has declared his support for the US Senate.

political capital

This did not prevent the former president from scratching the name of the candidate during an election meeting Saturday…

“We supported JP, didn’t we? JD Mandel,” Mr. Trump told the crowd, seeming to confuse Mr. Vance with his closest rival, Josh Mandel.

However, the former president’s support has proven to be a huge boon for JD Vance, who since his announcement has led by five points over his rivals according to opinion polls.

On May 17, the spotlight will then turn to Pennsylvania, a state formerly famous for its steel mills, where Donald Trump chose to support a former TV star.

Donald Trump’s endorsement of Mehmet Oz – the paranormal surgeon who has long been at the helm of a famous daily medical program – appears to have helped Dr. Oz beat his closest rival in the polls, former Treasury official David McCormick.

Analysis by Alexander Hefner, a specialist in US politics, told AFP: “The outcome of the primaries will determine whether the Republican base remains Trump’s.”

mini crucible

This will be especially important in Georgia, a kind of mini-melting pot of discussions that will energize the United States in the coming months.

The southeastern US state, known for its capital, Atlanta, is at the center of a fierce battle over African Americans’ access to the vote and the center of a disinformation campaign about election fraud.

Donald Trump has repeatedly berated Republican Governor Brian Kemp, a candidate for re-election, for endorsing the results of the 2020 presidential election, defeating him by Joe Biden.

Instead, the former White House tenant supports former Senator David Perdue, who regularly makes foot calls to Donald Trump supporters by perpetuating the idea that the presidential election was “stolen” from him – a hypothesis that has been repeatedly rejected, but still believed by millions of Americans. .

Following May’s ordeal, Donald Trump’s influence will be further tested in the new primaries in August, when one of the troublesome candidates in Congress, Republican-elect Liz Cheney, faces a candidate endorsed by the former president.

If the outcome of this election is unfavorable, it could cost Donald Trump, who is more frankly flirting with the idea of ​​running for president in 2024.

Alexander Hefner warns that “if the Trump-backed candidates do not perform as expected, the path to the 2024 presidential nomination race will be different.”