While the fifth wave of Covid-19 is expected to peak in the coming days, Genevieve Chen indicated that the virus continues to spread strongly in France.
The peak of infections was expected in mid-January. The Pasteur Institute wrote in its report On the impact of the Omicron variable on January 7th. But this estimate, if confirmed by other scientists, will not come true to this day, and on the eve of January 15, France is still “in the phase of a significant increase in the number of cases”, this was announced Friday on BFMTV Genevieve Chen, Director General Public Health in France.
“To say we’re at the top, no. We can say we hit the peak when we crossed it, because we have to see the dip to see the peak, and we’re not exactly in that position there,” she explained. “We are still in a phase of strong growth in the number of cases, as well as a certain increase in hospital admissions and critical care admissions.”
Backtracking in certain areas?
You remember that the virus still spreads a lot in the country, and that according to the consolidated data from last week, one in five French people tested positive, “It’s about 280,000 cases per day on average over the course of the week, and we are still all the same at a very high level. of the number of cases,” she confirms. And even when the peak of infection is reached, it will be necessary to wait for hospitalization and resuscitation, which mechanically comes out of step.
If the question is asked, it is because the signs seem to indicate that the epidemic is receding, such as In Ile-de-France, where the infection rate has decreased slightly in recent days. But this latest data should not be immediately taken in direction. “I don’t comment on today’s numbers,” said Genevieve Shen, who made it clear that she was waiting for the data to be “consolidated” before deducing something from it, “we will answer at the epidemiological point next week.”
“Commenting on the numbers from one day to the next has little epidemiological value,” epidemiologist Mircea Sofonia abounds on our antenna.
Uncertainty about the development that will follow the peak
It should also be remembered that the situation varies in different regions, and the epidemic will not develop in the same way everywhere. Epidemiologist Arnaud Fontane explained on BFMTV that “there are regional differences” in France, and that the peak “will arrive a little earlier than that.” In the Ile-de-France region and in the northwest of France, a little later in the south and southeast of France.”
“The situation in Corsica was kind of stabilizing last week, so we want to believe that with a stable situation, we will be in a more favorable situation the next week,” Genevieve Shen stated.
On the other hand, nothing says that a peak will be followed by a decline, as was observed in South Africa or England. “We will see in the next few days if we, like the English, reach the peak and then if that leads to a decline, or whether there is a plateau like the Delta, which obviously will not be happy news,” Health Minister Olivier Veran said at the beginning of the week.
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