Prostate cancer rates are expected to increase dramatically in the coming years around the world, especially in less affluent countries, according to estimates from models published in The Lancet, which explain this trend through the expected aging of the population.

“According to our conclusions, the annual number of new cases will double from 1.4 million in 2020 to 2.9 million in 2040,” summarized the authors of this study published Thursday, which was conducted by extrapolating the demographic changes already observed at the present time.

The researchers suggest that this progress can be explained by “increases in life expectancy and changes in age pyramids.”

Prostate cancer, which is most common in men — 15% of all male cancers — occurs over the age of 50 in most cases. Their frequency increases sharply as we grow older beyond this threshold.

However, a large number of poor or developing countries are in the process of partially closing the life expectancy gap compared to their developed counterparts, which would automatically lead to an increase in the number of prostate cancer cases.

“Unlike other major problems, such as lung cancer or cardiovascular disease, we will not be able to avoid this increase in cases through public health policies,” the researchers point out.

The truth is that the risk factors that lead to prostate cancer – genetics, height, etc. – are less preventable than, for example, smoking, which leads to lung cancer. Only a link to excess weight has been proven, but it is unclear whether there is a cause-and-effect mechanism.

However, the study authors believe that it is possible to reduce the increase in prostate cancer through various measures.

For example, they advocate targeting early diagnosis in less affluent countries, noting that prostate cancers there are often discovered too late to be treated effectively.

On the other hand, they warn of the danger of “over-diagnosis and over-treatment” in developed countries.